Broken Economies: The Million Dollar Question
Posted by: banker
in Finance And Economy
on May 24, 2010 
John Clarke and Bryan Dawe calculate the cost of the European debt crisis.
Transcript
KERRY O'BRIEN, PRESENTER: Time for John Clarke and Bryan Dawe with a few reflections on Europe's financial woes.
BRYAN DAWE: Your name is Roger yes?
JOHN CLARKE: Roger.
BRYAN DAWE: Ah, that's your name?
JOHN CLARKE: Roger.
BRYAN DAWE: Good. And what do you do Roger?
JOHN CLARKE: I'm a financial consultant.
BRYAN DAWE: Ah, financial consultant, eh?
JOHN CLARKE: Roger, yes.
BRYAN DAWE: Terrific and Roger how is business at the moment?
JOHN CLARKE: Not bad thank you. Been a bit quiet lately.
BRYAN DAWE: How do you mean lately?
JOHN CLARKE: Since the war. Been a bit quiet.
BRYAN DAWE: Fair enough. Okay, Roger your special subject tonight is the economies of the European community. Your time starts now. Best of luck.
JOHN CLARKE: Thank you.
BRYAN DAWE: How much does Greece owe, Roger?
JOHN CLARKE: $367 billion.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. And who do they owe it to?
JOHN CLARKE: Mostly to the other European economies.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. How much does Ireland owe?
JOHN CLARKE: $865 billion.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. Who do they owe it to?
JOHN CLARKE: Other European economies mostly.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. How much does Spain and Italy owe?
JOHN CLARKE: $1 trillion each.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. Who to?
JOHN CLARKE: Mainly France, Britain and Germany.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. And how are Germany, France, Britain going Roger?
JOHN CLARKE: Well they're struggling a bit, aren't they?
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. Why?
JOHN CLARKE: Well ‘cause they've lent all the vast amounts of money to other European economies that can't possibly pay them back.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct so what are they go to go have to do?
JOHN CLARKE: They're going to have to bail them out.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. Where are they getting the money to do that Roger?
JOHN CLARKE: That is a good question. I don't know the answer to that one. (laughs)
BRYAN DAWE: How much does Portugal owe?
JOHN CLARKE: Hang on a minute, what was the answer to that earlier question?
BRYAN DAWE: Just keep answering the questions Roger.
Where is Portugal going to get the money it owes to Germany if Germany can't get back the money that it lent to Italy?
JOHN CLARKE: Just a minute. What was the answer to the previous que-
The question was: How can broke economies lend money to other broke economies who haven't got any money because they can't pay back the money the broke economy lent to the other broke economy and shouldn't have lent it to them in the first place because the broke economy can't pay back?
BRYAN DAWE: You are wasting valuable time Roger. How much money does Spain owe to Italy?
JOHN CLARKE: $41 billion. But where are they going to get it?
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. What does Italy owe to Spain?
JOHN CLARKE: $27 billion but they haven't got it - they're broke.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. How can they pay each other if neither of them has any money?
JOHN CLARKE: They're going to get a bailout, aren't they?
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. And where is the money coming from for the bailout?
JOHN CLARKE: That is what I'm asking you!
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. Why are people selling the European currency and buying the US dollar?
JOHN CLARKE: Because the US economy is so much stronger than the European economy.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct. Why is that Roger?
JOHN CLARKE: Because it's owned by China.
BRYAN DAWE: Correct and very well done! And after that round you've lost $1 million.
JOHN CLARKE: I've lost $1 million? I thought you said well done!
BRYAN DAWE: Yes well done - you've only lost $1 million. That's an extraordinary performance Roger.
JOHN CLARKE: I've only lost $1 million.
BRYAN DAWE: Very well done.
JOHN CLARKE: That's quite good is it?
BRYAN DAWE: Oh it's excellent.
JOHN CLARKE: Sell everything immediately. Quickly!
KERRY O'BRIEN: I think it's called laughing as you sink.
Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 20/05/2010
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As always happens anytime government is involved, the dollar figure necessary to save Greece keeps rising. First it was $50 billion ... then $100 billion ... now $145 billion, the biggest loan to a country ever. Within a year it will become clear that $145 billion is not nearly enough. Just like with AIG, GM, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the failing public school system in America, the money we give Greece will never be enough. It's a bottomless pit.
But Greece is the EU's smallest problem. The other PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain) are in far deeper trouble. But those debts are all small when compared to the problems of France and the United Kingdom. There isn't enough money in the world to bail out the rest of Europe.
America has the exact same problem. California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois are american versions of Greece. These states are bankrupt, insolvent and desperately need a bailout. The only difference is that America is a nation of 300 million, so the debt is far bigger than Greece.
We are staring at economic Armageddon.
Spain’s central bank today stepped into save regional savings bank CajaSur Saturday with a €500 million euro ($621.75 million) cash injection to keep it solvent. It is estimated that the Spanish banking industry could be sitting on €300 billion worth of mortgage-related losses, but it is impossible to tell how bad things are as banks refuse to properly price houses sitting on their books following the collapse of the market.
It is no longer a question of whether Ireland will go bust, but when. Unlike Greece, our woes do not stem from government debt, but instead from the government’s open-ended guarantee to cover the losses of the banking system out of its citizens’ wallets.
Even under the most optimistic assumptions about government spending cuts and bank losses, by 2012 Ireland will have a worse ratio of debt to national income than the one that is sinking Greece.
Burden of Irish debt could yet eclipse that of Greece